July 11, 2026 – T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas
It has been three decades now, the UFC has built its legacy on rivalries that define eras. Nothing embodies that spirit quite like a rematch between two individuals who carved their names into the sport, far before both were elite. McGregor vs. Holloway 2 isn’t just nostalgia – it involved timing, power, and volume with 13 years of scar tissue between them.
The Stakes & The Context
This is McGregor’s first walk since breaking his leg at UFC 264, in July 2021 – after nearly five years on the shelf. At 37, he returns to 170 lbs for the first time since the Cerrone fight in 2020. Holloway, at age 34, makes his welterweight debut after a 36-fight career at 145 to 155 lbs.
Grit can certainly show up when a legacy is on the line. Both men are resilient and persevere. It will be nice to see what these two men can do in the Octagon. I am really looking forward to their bout, and to view their performance.
The Fighters’ Advantages
Conor McGregor has elite knockout power, as evidence by 19 career knockouts. Historically, he is known to be among the best in the sport, with his left hand and counter-striking. His frame is bigger and more explosive at 170lbs. McGregor has a great fight IQ and has been the main event for numerous mega-cards. Finally, there may perhaps be something positive psychologically due to winning the first fight against Holloway.
Max Holloway is a known for his exceptional boxing ability. As an active fighter, he has appeared in seven fights since McGregor’s last one, five years ago. Historically known for having exceptional endurance, he has the most total fight time within the UFC equaling approximately nine hours in the Octagon. McGregor’s ring rust could be a benefit for Holloway.
The Fighters’ Disadvantages
McGregor is rusty with five years of inactivity. This makes reflexes, durability, and recovery questionable. With back-to- back losses to Poirier, his form was not good before he left the UFC. While this fight will be five rounds, historically with later rounds Conor gases out, due to poor cardio. The man is undersized for an actual welterweight – he is built like a lightweight/featherweight moving up a division or so. Unfortunately for him, age and time away for five years screws up repetition and muscle memory. This is a major downfall for McGregor. Since McGregor only had 1 submission win in his professional career, it is extremely unlikely that grappling will be a factor in this fight for him.
Holloway’s first matchup in the welterweight division will be against McGregor. In 2024, he moved from featherweight to lightweight. Due to having the most total fight time in UFC history, his durability is a concern from absorbing a lot of volume throughout his career. He tends to win on volume and by decision because he is does not have a one-punch type of knockout power. Facing a larger, heavy-handed striker in a new heavier weight class is also a potential risk. Additionally, from what I have seen in his last fight against Oliviera, he cannot grapple at all. Plus the first matchup with McGregor was a loss for Holloway because McGregor injured his knee and had wrestled his win by decision.
Likely Outcome
The entire fight is essentially focused on one question: does McGregor’s power and freshness (no wear on his body from recent fights) beat Holloway’s activity and cardio, or does the five year hiatus pose a problem before he is able to land something meaningful? I feel that having the activity and endurance could be in Holloway’s favor and the fight likely will ride on that. Just as I am not buying the comeback, neither are the markets: Holloway sits ∼68% to McGregor’s ∼34%.